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Lowest events in Lake Titicaca’s water level (LTWL) significantly impact local ecosystems and the drinking water supply in Peru and Bolivia. However, the hydroclimatic mechanisms driving extreme lake-level lowstands remain poorly understood. To investigate these low lake-level events, we analyzed detrended monthly LTWL anomalies, sea surface temperature (SST) datasets covering the period 1921–2023. ERA5 reanalysis covers the period 1940–2023. A multiple linear regression model was developed to compute detrended LTWL anomalies, excluding multidecadal and residual components. Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices were also analyzed for the same period. Results indicate that 25% of all LTWL minima events have a short duration of <5 months, while the remaining 75% of all events have a long duration of more than 9 months, respectively. All long-lived LTWL minima events are associated with reduced moisture flow from the Amazon basin toward Lake Titicaca, but the large-scale forcing varies with the phase change of the decadal component in the 11–15 years band of the PDO (PDO11–15 years). Under warm PDO11–15 yearsphases, LTWL minima are driven by an enhanced South American low-level jet (SALLJ) caused by warm SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Warm SST anomalies over tropical North Atlantic and central Pacific cold events, which reinforce the cold PDO11–15 yearsphases, driving long-lived LTWL minima through the reduction of SALLJ. Conversely, long-lived LTWL minima events under neutral PDO11–15 yearsphases are caused by westerly flow anomalies confined to the Peruvian Altiplano. Therefore, PDO and IPO do not drive long-lived LTWL minima events because their relationship does not remain consistent over time. In conclusion, long-lived LTWL minima events exhibit a regional nature and are not driven by the PDO or IPO, as LTWL shows no consistent relationship with these decadal SST modes over time.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available May 7, 2026
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Deep Evidential Regression (DER) places a prior on the original Gaussian likelihood and treats learning as an evidence acquisition process to quantify uncertainty. For the validity of the evidence theory, DER requires specialized activation functions to ensure that the prior parameters remain non-negative. However, such constraints will trigger evidence contraction, causing sub-optimal performance. In this paper, we analyse DER theoretically, revealing the intrinsic limitations for sub-optimal performance: the non-negativity constraints on the Normal Inverse-Gamma (NIG) prior parameter trigger the evidence contraction under the specialized activation function, which hinders the optimization of DER performance. On this basis, we design a Non-saturating Uncertainty Regularization term, which effectively ensures that the performance is further optimized in the right direction. Experiments on real-world datasets show that our proposed approach improves the performance of DER while maintaining the ability to quantify uncertainty.more » « less
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Abstract The stable isotope ratio of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ13C‐DIC) is a valuable tracer for investigating carbon cycling in aquatic environments. However, its potential remains underutilized due to limited data availability. Fewer than 15% of cruise samples are analyzed forδ13C‐DIC, as isotope analysis using isotope ratio mass spectrometry is labor‐intensive and restricted to onshore laboratories. We present over 3500δ13C‐DIC measurements from the 2023 Global Ocean Ship‐based Hydrographic Investigations Program A16N cruise in the North Atlantic. Notably, three‐quarters of these measurements were conducted onboard using a CO2extraction device coupled with cavity ring‐down spectroscopy, a more efficient and cost‐effective method. This extensive dataset providesδ13C‐DIC values with spatial resolution comparable to other ocean carbonate chemistry and biogeochemical parameters. This dataset supports improved quantification of anthropogenic CO2uptake and storage, and may facilitate the development of algorithms to estimateδ13C‐DIC in under sampled regions.more » « less
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Here, we explicitly define a half-cell reaction approach for pH calculation using the electrode couple comprised of the solid-state chloride ion-selective electrode (Cl-ISE) as the reference electrode and the hydrogen ionselective ion-sensitive field effect transistor (ISFET) of the Honeywell Durafet as the hydrogen ion (H+)-sensitive measuring or working electrode. This new approach splits and isolates the independent responses of the Cl-ISE to the chloride ion (Cl−) (and salinity) and the ISFET to H+ (and pH), and calculates pH directly on the total scale (pHEXT total) in molinity (mol (kg-soln)−1) concentration units. We further apply and compare pHEXT total calculated using the half-cell and the existing complete cell reaction (defined by Martz et al. (2010)) approaches using measurements from two SeapHOx sensors deployed in a test tank. Salinity (on the Practical Salinity Scale) and pH oscillated between 1 and 31 and 6.9 and 8.1, respectively, over a six-day period. In contrast to established Sensor Best Practices, we employ a new calibration method where the calibration of raw pH sensor timeseries are split out as needed according to salinity. When doing this, pHEXT total had root-mean squared errors ranging between ±0.0026 and ±0.0168 pH calculated using both reaction approaches relative to pHtotal of the discrete bottle samples (pHdisc total). Our results further demonstrate the rapid response of the Cl-ISE reference to variable salinity with changes up to ±12 (30 min)−1. Final calculated pHEXT total were ≤±0.012 pH when compared to pHdisc total following salinity dilution or concentration. These results are notably in contrast to those of the few in situ field deployments over similar environmental conditions that demonstrated pHEXT total calculated using the Cl-ISE as the reference electrode had larger uncertainty in nearshore waters. Therefore, additional work beyond the correction of variable temperature and salinity conditions in pH calculation using the Cl-ISE is needed to examine the effects of other external stimuli on in situ electrode response. Furthermore, whereas past work has focused on in situ reference electrode response, greater scrutiny of the ISFET as the H+-sensitive measuring electrode for pH measurement in natural waters is also needed.more » « less
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